The dark side of military takeover in Niger if democratic rule is not restored
The United States and its Western allies are faced with a difficult conundrum as they navigate potential responses to the military takeover in Niger if democratic rule is not restored.
Under US law, if the US State Department formally classifies that takeover as a coup, it would require the US to cut foreign and military assistance to the Nigerien government, which could have serious consequences for the fight against terrorism and stability in the region.
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The Biden administration has not yet made such a determination, with State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel saying Thursday that “this continues to be an evolving situation and it is quite too soon to characterize the nature of these ongoing developments.”
US officials stress that they are focused on diplomatic efforts to restore democratic rule, but on Friday, John Kirby of the National Security Council warned that a military takeover would imperil US assistance to Niger.
‘The last domino’ in the region
Niger has become a point of stability in the Sahel region of Africa, which faces a significant fight against terrorists and Islamist extremists, and is a key partner to the US, serving as a base for hundreds of US troops to assist with counterterrorism missions. Niger’s neighbors including Mali and Burkina Faso have experienced coups of their own in recent years.
‘Still space for diplomacy here’
“We believe that there is still space for diplomacy here,” Kirby said Friday.
Blinken spoke by phone Wednesday with Bazoum, who has been detained in his residence, “and made clear that we strongly support him as the democratically elected president of the country,” the top US diplomat said at a news conference in New Zealand. US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield spoke with Bazoum on Thursday.
US Vice President Kamala Harris spoke Thursday with President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria, who is the head of ECOWAS, about the situation.
Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Molly Phee spoke with Nigerien Foreign Minister Hassoumi Massoudou and former President Mahamadou Issoufou “to condemn the efforts to seize power as well as encouraged their roles in facilitating negotiations between President Bazoum and the instigators of this takeover,” State Department deputy spokesperson Patel said.
“The US continues to remain deeply engaged and on this, we’re monitoring and paying attention very closely in touch with officials from the constitutionally elected government of Niger as well as our colleagues at the embassy,” he said.
A difficult geostrategic environment
Hudson, a former US government official, told CNN that Niger “is an essential part of our security posture in the region, and we cannot walk away from that.”
“But the flip side of that is we have a playbook that we tend to follow when these coups happen: We impose sanctions, we restrict military assistance, we take away development assistance,” he explained.
“We’re in a geostrategic environment now where doing those things that we would normally do that would reflect our values in support of democracy could actually create the opening that the terrorists are looking for
