What the polls are saying in the final week before the 2024 election
The 2024 presidential election is just eight days away. And the latest batch of major national polls and swing state surveys shows the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is as tight as it’s ever been.
National polls
Three websites that aggregate national and state surveys — the Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times — currently have the national polling average as follows:
Silver Bulletin
- Harris: 48.6%
- Trump: 47.4%
FiveThirtyEight
- Harris: 48.1%
- Trump: 46.6%
New York Times
- Harris: 49%
- Trump: 48%
All three show Harris with a narrow lead in the popular vote, but each less than two percentage points — well within the aggregated margins of error.
Swing state polls
The same websites have polling averages in the seven battleground states as follows:
Silver Bulletin
- Nevada: Harris 47.9% | Trump 47.9%
- Arizona:Trump 49.4% | Harris 47.3%
- Wisconsin:Harris 48.5% | Trump 48.0%
- Michigan:Harris 48.1% | Trump 47.4%
- Pennsylvania:Trump 48.3% | Harris 48.0%
- North Carolina:Trump 48.9% | Harris 47.6%
- Georgia:Trump 49.0% | Harris 47.6%
FiveThirtyEight
- Nevada:Trump 47.5% | Harris 47.3%
- Arizona:Trump 48.6% | Harris 46.8%
- Wisconsin:Harris 47.9% | Trump 47.7%
- Michigan:Harris 47.7% | Trump 47.2%
- Pennsylvania:Trump 47.9% | Harris 47.7%
- North Carolina:Trump 48.4% | Harris 47.1%
- Georgia:Trump 48.6% | Harris 47.1%
New York Times
- Nevada:Harris 48% | Trump 48%
- Arizona:Trump 49% | Harris 48%
- Wisconsin:Harris 49% | Trump 48%
- Michigan:Harris 49% | Trump 48%
- Pennsylvania:Harris 49% | Trump 48%
- North Carolina:Trump 49% | Harris 48%
- Georgia:Trump 49% | Harris 48%
“The battleground states remain extraordinarily tight, with no candidate holding any material lead in the seven states likeliest to decide the presidency,” Nate Cohn, the Times chief pollster, wrote Monday.
Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — the so-called Blue Wall for Democrats — are critical for Harris. In 2016, Trump flipped all three, helping him win the presidency. In 2020, Biden reclaimed all three, with Pennsylvania clinching his victory.
If the swing-state polling averages were to hold true, Trump would win the Electoral College in both Silver Bulletin and FiveThirtyEight models, while Harris would emerge victorious based on the New York Times averages.
These are only averages, not projections or race calls. Those will be determined by actual votes cast on or before Election Day.
