Premier League Matchday 33 Preview: Everton vs. Manchester City and Aston Villa vs. Newcastle United

The Premier League’s Matchday 33 brings two blockbuster fixtures that could shape the race for European qualification. Everton host Manchester City at Goodison Park, while Aston Villa face Newcastle United at Villa Park. Both matches pit teams in contrasting form and ambition against each other, promising drama and high stakes. Below, we dive into the stats, context, and predictions for these clashes, analyzing key players, team form, and historical trends to forecast the outcomes.

Everton vs. Manchester City: A Battle of Resilience vs. Firepower

Date: Saturday, April 19, 2025
Venue: Goodison Park, Liverpool
Kick-off: TBC (Check Premier League or Sky Sports for exact times)

Match Context

Everton, rejuvenated under the returning David Moyes, are riding a wave of confidence. Unbeaten in their last seven Premier League matches (W4, D3), the Toffees have transformed Goodison Park into a fortress, losing just two of their last 13 league games (W5, D6). Their recent 1-0 victory over Nottingham Forest and a 4-0 thrashing of Wolverhampton Wanderers underline their ability to upset top teams. However, Everton face a daunting challenge against Manchester City, a side they haven’t beaten in the league since 2017 (15 matches, W13, D2 for City).

Manchester City, sitting seventh but occupying the final Champions League qualification spot, are desperate to maintain their position. Despite a stellar 5-2 win over Crystal Palace, City’s form has been inconsistent, with eight losses in their last 11 matches across all competitions. Pep Guardiola’s men need points to fend off chasing teams like Aston Villa and Newcastle. With 102 goals scored across all competitions in the 2024-25 season, City’s attack remains lethal, but injuries and defensive frailties could give Everton hope.

Key Stats

• Everton:
  • Unbeaten in seven Premier League games, conceding no more than one goal in their last six matches.
  • Jordan Pickford leads the Golden Glove race with seven clean sheets this season.
  • Everton have scored in only one of their last seven games before the 4-0 win over Wolves, highlighting a reliance on defensive solidity.
  • Absences: Ashley Young (suspended), Dwight McNeil, Tim Iroegbunam, and James Garner (injured). Armando Broja is available.
  • Everton have lost their last five home games against Manchester City, conceding 14 goals.
• Manchester City:
  • Erling Haaland has four goals in three Premier League games against Everton but only three in his last 12 league matches overall.
  • City have won 13 of their last 15 league games against Everton, scoring 37 goals.
  • Injuries: Rúben Dias, Rodri, Matheus Nunes, and Oscar Bobb are out. John Stones and Nathan Aké are doubtful.
  • City’s recent 5-2 win over Palace ended a run of three consecutive league defeats.

Key Players

• Everton: Jordan Pickford will be crucial in goal, with his seven clean sheets showcasing his form. Dominic Calvert-Lewin, despite a modest goal tally, remains a focal point in attack, capable of exploiting City’s depleted defense.
• Manchester City: Erling Haaland is the danger man, even in a scoring drought, while Phil Foden’s creativity (five assists this season) could unlock Everton’s low block. Josko Gvardiol will need to step up defensively in Dias’ absence.

Prediction

The Opta supercomputer gives Manchester City a 47.8% chance of victory, with Everton at 27.1% and a draw at 25.1%. Everton’s defensive resilience and home form make them a tough proposition, but City’s attacking quality and historical dominance in this fixture tilt the scales. Everton’s struggle to score consistently (six goalless games in seven before Wolves) could be their undoing against a City side desperate for points. However, City’s injury concerns and recent inconsistencies suggest a narrow contest.

Predicted Score: Everton 1-2 Manchester City
Reasoning: City’s need for a win and Haaland’s potential to exploit Everton’s defense should see them edge a tight game, though Everton’s organization could keep the scoreline close.

Aston Villa vs. Newcastle United: A Champions League Showdown

Date: Saturday, April 19, 2025
Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham
Kick-off: TBC (Check Premier League or Sky Sports for exact times)

Match Context

Aston Villa and Newcastle United are two of the Premier League’s form teams, locked in a battle for Champions League qualification. Villa, under Unai Emery, have won their last four league matches, conceding just one goal, and sit two points behind Manchester City in the race for a top-five finish. Their 2-1 victory over Brentford and a 3-0 win against Leicester showcase their balance of attacking flair and defensive grit. However, Newcastle have been their bogey team, winning five of the last six league meetings (W5, L1).

Newcastle, managed by Eddie Howe, are flying high in third place after five consecutive Premier League wins, including a 5-0 demolition of Crystal Palace and a 4-1 rout of Manchester United. With eight away wins this season—more than all but Liverpool (35 points) and Arsenal (28 points)—Newcastle’s road form is formidable. A win at Villa Park could solidify their top-four credentials and send a statement to their rivals.

Key Stats

• Aston Villa:
  • Four consecutive league wins, with seven victories in 11 games against bottom-six sides this season.
  • Lost five of their last six league games against Newcastle, with Newcastle scoring at least three goals in their last three wins.
  • Marcus Rashford, on loan from Manchester United, has four goals in eight home Premier League games for Villa.
  • Potential injury concerns: Emiliano Martinez and Marco Asensio are doubts but could return.
  • Villa’s expected goals (xG) conceded at home is among the league’s best, averaging 0.9 per game.
• Newcastle United:
  • Five straight league wins, scoring 17 goals in that run.
  • Alexander Isak has nine goals in his last 10 Premier League starts, forming a lethal partnership with Jacob Murphy (eight assists in 20 starts).
  • Newcastle have won their last three league games against Villa, scoring 12 goals.
  • No major injury concerns, giving Howe a near-full squad.
  • Newcastle’s away form is exceptional, with 27 points from 17 away games.

Key Players

• Aston Villa: Ollie Watkins, with 10 goals this season, is Villa’s talisman, while Morgan Rogers’ dynamism in midfield could exploit Newcastle’s high line. Pau Torres will be key in containing Isak.
• Newcastle United: Alexander Isak is in scintillating form, and his movement will test Villa’s defense. Bruno Guimarães’s control in midfield and Jacob Murphy’s delivery from the right are pivotal to Newcastle’s attack.

Prediction

The Opta supercomputer predicts a tight contest, with Aston Villa at 41.4% to win, Newcastle at 33.8%, and a draw at 24.8%. Villa’s home form and defensive solidity give them a slight edge, but Newcastle’s attacking momentum and historical success against Villa make them a serious threat. Villa’s potential fatigue from midweek European commitments could be a factor, while Newcastle’s fully fit squad and away prowess suggest they’ll score. The match is likely to be high-scoring, with both teams’ attacking quality shining through.

Predicted Score: Aston Villa 2-2 Newcastle United
Reasoning: Villa’s home advantage is offset by Newcastle’s scoring form and historical edge in this fixture. A draw feels likely, with both sides sharing the spoils in an entertaining, goal-filled encounter.

Final Thoughts

Matchday 33’s fixtures promise to deliver thrilling action with significant implications for the Premier League’s top-five race. Everton vs. Manchester City pits the Toffees’ defensive grit against City’s attacking might, with Pep Guardiola’s side likely to scrape a narrow victory. Aston Villa vs. Newcastle United, meanwhile, is a clash of two in-form teams, where a draw seems the most probable outcome given their attacking prowess and defensive vulnerabilities.

For the latest lineups, injury updates, or live coverage, check official Premier League channels, Sky Sports, or BBC Sport. These matches could be pivotal in the race for Europe—don’t miss them!

Note: All stats and predictions are based on data available as of April 18, 2025, from sources like Opta, Yahoo Sports, and GoBet. For real-time developments, refer to trusted broadcasters or the Premier League’s official website.