Liverpool vs Tottenham Prediction and Stats (April 27, 2025)

The Premier League match between Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur on April 27, 2025, at Anfield is poised to be a significant fixture, with Liverpool on the verge of clinching the 2024/25 Premier League title. Below is a detailed prediction and statistical breakdown based on available data and trends.

Prediction

• Expected Outcome: Liverpool to win 3-1
• Reasoning:
  • Liverpool’s Dominance: Liverpool are in exceptional form under manager Arne Slot, leading the Premier League with 79 points and needing just one point to secure the title. They have lost only two of their 33 matches this season and are undefeated in 28 of their last 29 Premier League games. Their home form is particularly strong, with six consecutive wins at Anfield.
  • Tottenham’s Struggles: Tottenham are languishing in 16th place with 37 points, facing a potential worst season since 1977. They have won only five away league matches this season and have lost three straight away games. Their focus may be divided due to an upcoming Europa League semi-final against Bodø/Glimt, potentially leading to squad rotation.
  • Head-to-Head Record: Liverpool have a strong historical edge, winning 22 of the last 39 meetings with Tottenham, including 8 of the last 10. They are unbeaten in 25 of their last 28 matches against Spurs across all competitions and have not lost at home to Tottenham since 2011.
  • Recent Encounters: Liverpool defeated Tottenham 6-3 in December 2024 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and won 4-0 in the EFL Cup semi-final second leg in February 2025 (despite losing the first leg 1-0). These results highlight Liverpool’s attacking prowess against Spurs, who have conceded 10 goals in three matches against Liverpool this season.
  • Key Players: Mohamed Salah, with 27 Premier League goals this season, is a major threat, having scored 15 goals against Tottenham in his career. Cody Gakpo and Luis Diaz are also in form, while Tottenham’s attack, led by Dominic Solanke and Dejan Kulusevski, has been inconsistent, and injuries may limit their options.
  • Statistical Models: The Opta supercomputer gives Liverpool a 71.8% chance of winning and an 87.7% chance of securing the title on Sunday. Betting odds heavily favor Liverpool (-385), with predictions leaning toward a high-scoring game due to both teams’ attacking tendencies and Tottenham’s defensive vulnerabilities.
• Betting Tips:
  • Result: Liverpool to win (-385 odds).
  • Goals: Over 2.5 goals, as previous matches between these teams have averaged 3.28 goals, with both teams scoring (BTTS) in 64% of their encounters.
  • Player Prop: Mohamed Salah to score or assist (+180 for anytime goalscorer), given his record of involvement in nine goals in his last six games against Tottenham.
  • Correct Score: 3-1 to Liverpool, aligning with predictions from multiple sources.

Key Statistics

Team Form

• Liverpool:
  • Position: 1st (79 points, 24 wins, 7 draws, 2 losses).
  • Recent Form (Last 5 PL Games): W-W-W-D-W (1-0 vs Leicester, 1-0 vs Everton, 3-2 vs Bournemouth, 2-2 vs Fulham, 3-1 vs Brentford).
  • Home Record: Averaging 2.56 points per game at home, scoring 2.18 goals per match. In 82.76% of home games, total goals (team + opponent) exceed 1.5, and 62.07% exceed 2.5.
  • Goals Scored/Conceded: 75 goals scored (league-high), 25 conceded (second-best defense behind Arsenal).
  • Unbeaten Streak: Undefeated in 28 of their last 29 Premier League matches and 17 away games, the second-best away unbeaten run in PL history.
• Tottenham:
  • Position: 16th (37 points, 10 wins, 7 draws, 16 losses).
  • Recent Form (Last 5 PL Games): L-L-W-L-D (1-2 vs Nottingham Forest, 1-2 vs Wolves, 3-0 vs Southampton, 3-4 vs Chelsea, 2-2 vs Newcastle).
  • Away Record: Averaging 1 point per game away, scoring 1.88 goals per match. In 80% of away games, total goals exceed 1.5, and 63.33% exceed 2.5.
  • Goals Scored/Conceded: 42 goals scored (second-highest in PL), 58 conceded (poor defensively).
  • Injuries and Absences: Key players like Radu Dragusin (ACL, out for season), Son Heung-min (foot injury, doubtful), and others (Destiny Udogie, Guglielmo Vicario, Brennan Johnson) may miss out or be rested.

Head-to-Head (H2H)

• Overall: In 58 matches, Liverpool have won 30, Tottenham 14, with 14 draws. Average goals per match: 2.93.
• Recent 10 Meetings:
  • Liverpool: 8 wins
  • Tottenham: 0 wins
  • Draws: 2
  • Notable Result: Liverpool 6-3 Tottenham (Dec 22, 2024, PL). Goals from Diaz (2), Salah (2), Mac Allister, Szoboszlai for Liverpool; Maddison, Kulusevski, Solanke for Tottenham.
• At Anfield: Liverpool have won 19 of their last 27 home games against Tottenham (D7, L1), unbeaten in 14 since a 2-0 loss in May 2011. They have scored at least 4 goals in their last 3 home matches against Spurs.

Player Stats

• Liverpool:
  • Mohamed Salah: 27 PL goals (league-leader), 15 goals vs Tottenham in all competitions. Involved in 9 goals (6 goals, 3 assists) in his last 6 games against Spurs.
  • Cody Gakpo: 6 goals in his last 8 PL home games, 4 EFL Cup goals this season.
  • Luis Diaz: Scored twice in the 6-3 win over Tottenham in December.
  • Team xG: Liverpool lead the PL in expected goals, with 23 shots from fast breaks (second to Chelsea’s 28).
• Tottenham:
  • Dominic Solanke: Scored in the 6-3 loss to Liverpool, likely to have at least one shot on target (-125 odds).
  • Dejan Kulusevski: Scored in the 6-3 defeat and remains a creative spark.
  • Richarlison: 4 goals in his last 5 PL games, including against Liverpool, but often scores in defeats.
  • Team xG: Tottenham rank fourth in PL for expected goals (31.2 xG) and second for shots on target (97).

Match Context

• Liverpool’s Motivation: A win or draw will secure Liverpool’s second Premier League title and their 20th top-flight title, equalling Manchester United’s record. The party atmosphere at Anfield, combined with their superior goal difference (+50 vs Arsenal’s +30), makes them overwhelming favorites.
• Tottenham’s Distraction: With a Europa League semi-final looming, Tottenham may prioritize that competition over a league match where they have little to play for, given their secured top-flight status.
• Tactical Notes:
  • Liverpool’s high-pressing, fast-break style (led by Salah) exploits Tottenham’s high defensive line, which has been exposed repeatedly, conceding 58 goals this season.
  • Tottenham’s attacking approach under Ange Postecoglou ensures they score (42 PL goals), but their defensive frailties (no clean sheet in their last 18 PL games against Liverpool) make an upset unlikely.

Team News

• Liverpool:
  • Injuries: Joe Gomez is the only confirmed absentee. Trent Alexander-Arnold and Conor Bradley are fit, with Alexander-Arnold likely to start over Bradley.
  • Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Salah, Szoboszlai, Gakpo; Diaz.
  • Notes: Arne Slot is expected to field his strongest XI to clinch the title, with minimal rotation.
• Tottenham:
  • Injuries/Suspensions: Radu Dragusin (out for season), Son Heung-min (doubtful), and others (Udogie, Vicario, Johnson) may miss out. James Maddison and Micky van de Ven could be rested for the Europa League.
  • Predicted Lineup (4-3-3): Vicario (or Kinsky); Spence, Romero, Van de Ven, Udogie (or Davies); Bergvall, Bentancur, Maddison; Johnson, Solanke, Tel.
  • Notes: Ange Postecoglou may rotate heavily, prioritizing the Europa League, which could weaken their lineup.

Additional Insights

• Venue: Anfield, Liverpool. Kick-off: 3:30 PM UTC (4:30 PM BST).
• Broadcast: In the UK, the match will be televised on Sky Sports and streamed via the Sky Go app.
• Referee Impact: Not specified, but Liverpool’s expected goals (xG) advantage (2.1 vs 1.2 in their last meeting with Tottenham) suggests they can dominate regardless of officiating.
• Corners: Liverpool average 5.6 corners per home game, Tottenham 4.8 away. The 11.5 total corners line has not been covered in Tottenham’s last 8 matches or Liverpool’s last 5 home games, suggesting Under 11.5 corners (-138 odds).
• Cards: The Premier League averages 4.39 cards per match. Liverpool and Tottenham matches often see cards due to their high-pressing styles, but no specific player card props are highlighted.

Caveats

• Unpredictability: Football matches can be influenced by unexpected events like red cards, injuries, or tactical shifts. While Liverpool are heavily favored, Tottenham’s attacking threat (42 goals scored) means they could score, as seen in their 6-3 loss earlier this season.
• Data Limitations: Predictions rely on historical data and current form, but player motivation (e.g., Liverpool’s title chase vs Tottenham’s Europa focus) can skew outcomes.

Conclusion

Liverpool are poised to clinch the Premier League title with a victory over Tottenham on April 27, 2025, at Anfield. Their superior form, home advantage, and historical dominance over Spurs make a 3-1 win the most likely outcome, with Mohamed Salah expected to play a pivotal role. Tottenham’s defensive issues and potential squad rotation further tilt the scales in Liverpool’s favor, though their attacking threat ensures they may find the net. Expect a high-scoring, entertaining match as Liverpool celebrate their 20th top-flight title in front of their home fans.